Trends and Projections of Breast Cancer Cases in a Private Hospital in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia, 2018-2033: A Hospital Registry-Based Study

Arief Tarmansyah Iman; Tari Nurhayati

Authors

Arief Tarmansyah Iman Poltekkes Kemenkes Tasikmalaya
Tari Nurhayati

Keywords:

Breast Caner, Cancer Registration, Trends, Prediction, Joinpoint Regression

Abstract

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women in Indonesia, making trend monitoring essential for service planning. Objective: To analyze trends and project breast cancer cases for 2026–2033 by age group and domicile at a private hospital in West Java, Indonesia. This retrospective study used hospital cancer registry data from Santosa Bandung Kopo Hospital. All cases recorded in 2018–2025 were included using total sampling (n=8,884). Joinpoint regression estimated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC); projections were obtained by extrapolating the AAPC. Results: Cases increased with an AAPC of 14.44% (95% CI:9.26-19.86; p=0.001), slowing in 2023–2025 (APC=-4.82%; 95% CI:22,91-17.53; p=0.510. The 45–54 year group had the most cases, while the 65–74 year group had the fastest increase (AAPC = 19.58%; 95% CI:13.64–25.83; p=0.001). Patients from outside Bandung were the largest domicile group, whereas Bandung Regency showed the fastest increase (AAPC=16.09%; 95% CI: 11.68–20.67; p =0.001). Projected cases rose from 8,884 in 2025 to in 2033. Conclusion: Projections assume historical AAPC continues and represent hospital service demand scenarios, not definitive population predictions.

Author Biography

Arief Tarmansyah Iman, Poltekkes Kemenkes Tasikmalaya

Prodi D3 RMIK Jurusan RMIK Poltekkes Kemenkes Tasikmalaya

https://www.youtube.com/@Mega888apkoriginal

https://x.com/mega888malay

https://hashnode.com/@mega888game

https://www.facebook.com/playmega888/

https://gravatar.com/mega888profile

https://medium.com/@mega888gamemalay

https://mega888png.tumblr.com/

https://www.bizmalay.com/mega-malaysia-016-211-8234

mega888 online casino

References

Akbarini, Oon, Fatonah. (2023). Komunikasi dan Konseling Dalam Pelayanan Kebidanan (Aspia Lamana, Éd.; 1re éd.). Bantul : CV. Mitra Edukasi Negeri.

Albeshan, Salman M. et Alashban, Yazeed I. (2021). Incidence trends of breast cancer in Saudi Arabia: A joinpoint regression analysis (2004–2016). Journal of King Saud University - Science, 33(7). Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2021.101578

American Cancer Society. (2025). About Breast Cancer.

Anisa Rahmawati ; Krisnita Dwi Jayanti ; Eva Firdayanti Bisono ; Ayu Pangestuti ; Nugroho Nugroho ; Nurhadi Nurhadi et Budi Pranoto. (2025). Prediksi Penyakit Gagal Jantung Tahun 2025-2028 Rawat Inap di RSUD Gambiran Kota Kediri. Antigen : Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Ilmu Gizi, 3(2), pp. 227 237. Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.57213/antigen.v3i2.667

Arsang-Jang, Shahram ; Mozaaari, Mahsa ; Zavrsnik, Jernej ; Center Adolf Drolc Maribor, Health ; F Tsoi, Kelvin K ; Li, Jinhui ; Chan, Nicholas B et Xue, Jiashu. (2022). Time series models show comparable projection performance with joinpoint regression: A comparison using historical cancer data from World Health Organization. Disponible sur http://ci5.iarc.fr/CI5plus

Ayman, Alsabry ; Malek, Algabri et Amin, Mohamed, Ahsan. (2023). Breast Cancer-Risk Factors and Prediction Using Machine-Learning. Journal of Applied Sciences and Technology, 01, pp. 147167.

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025). Jumlah Penduduk Menurut Kelompok Umur dan Jenis Kelamin, 2025. Badan Pusat Statistik.

Bonita, R.. ; Beaglehole, R.. et Kjellstrom, Tord. (2007). Basic epidemiology. World Health Organization.

Buss, Paulo Marchiori ; Araújo Hartz, Zulmira Maria de ; Pinto, Luiz Felipe et Rocha, Cristianne Maria Famer. (2020). Health promotion and quality of life: A historical perspective of the last two 40 years (1980-2020). Ciencia e Saude Coletiva, 25(12), pp. 4723 4735. Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.1590/1413-812320202512.15902020

Direktorat Jenderal Pelayanan Kesehatan et Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2024). Keputusan Direktur Jenderal Pelayanan Kesehatan Nomor HK.02.02/D/40555/2024 tentang Petunjuk Teknis Penyelenggaraan Rumah Sakit Jejaring Pengampuan Pelayanan Kanker. Jakarta.

Dwi, Prihatin, Era ; Muh, Agus, Salim ; Febtian, Cendradevi, Nugroho ; Tioma, Naibaho et Lisa, Rizky, Amalia. (2025). Panduan Lengkap Untuk Tenaga Kesehatan Pencegahan, Pengobatan, dan Perawatan Komprehensif Pasien dengan Kanker (1re éd.). Nuansa Fajar Cemerlang Jakarta.

Gondhowiardjo, Soehartati ; Ekaputra, Ericko ; Randi, Achmad et Jayalie, Vito Filbert. (2020). The challenge of the implementation and evaluation of hospital-based cancer registry in Indonesia’s national referral hospital. Medical Journal of Indonesia, 29(4), pp. 431 435. Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.13181/mji.bc.203785

Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2024a). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2023.

Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2024b). Rencana Kanker Nasional 2024–2034: Strategi Indonesia dalam Upaya Melawan Kanker.

Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2025a). AyoSehat Kementerian Kesehatan: Kategori Usia. Kementerian Kesehatan RI. Disponible sur https://ayosehat.kemkes.go.id/kategori-usia [Consulté le 05/12/2025].

Kementerian Kesehatan RI. (2025b). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2024.

Kurniawan, Fajar ; Anggraeni, Risa, Kusuma ; Heryyanoor ; Marsilia, Imelda, Diana ; Arfan, Alya, Rahmaditya ; Hati, Yulis ; Tanjung, Risnawati ; Amraeni, Yunita ; Handayani, Fitriah et Ramadhansyah, Muhammad, Fadli. (2025). Metodologi Penelitian Kesehatan (Kalasta, Ayunda Putri, Éd.; 1re éd.). Padang : Azzia Karya Bersama.

Marc Lalonde. (1981). A New Perspective On The Health Of Canadians.

Masturoh, Imas et Anggita, Nauri. (2018). Metodologi Penelitian Kesehatan (1re éd.).

Ng Braynt ; Puspitaningtyas, Herindita ; Wiranata, Juan Adrian ; Hutajulu, Susanna Hilda ; Widodo, Irianiwati ; Anggorowati, Nungki ; Sanjaya, Guardian Yoki ; Lazuardi, Lutfan et Sripan, Patumrat. (2023). Breast cancer incidence in Yogyakarta, Indonesia from 2008–2019: A cross-sectional study using trend analysis and geographical information system. PLoS ONE, 18(7 JULY). Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0288073

Prawirohartono, Endy, P. (2022). Memahami Penelitian Epidemiologi Klinis Secara Mudah (Siti Nurhayati, Éd.). D.I. Yogyakarta : Gadjah Mada University Press.

Roza, Rahmi ; Fauzan, Mohammad, Norkamal et Rahayu, Woro, Isti. (2020). Tutorial Sistem Informasi Prediksi Jumlah Pelanggan Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier Berganda Berbasis Web Menggunakan Framework Codeigniter (Awangga Rolly Maulana, Éd.; 1re éd.). Bandung : Kreatif Industri Nusantara.

Sharma, Ankit ; Saniya, Saniya ; Kumar, Jatin ; Thakur, Sahil ; Pathania, Priti et Sharma, Shubham. (2025). A Comprehensive Review on Breast Cancer. International Journal of Pharmaceutical Research and Applications, 10(1), pp. 871 880. Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.35629/4494-1001871880

Sierra, Zury Paola ; Sierra, Javier E et Sierra, María F. (2023). Analysis Of Lalonde Determinants As Factors Associated With Breast Cancer. Journal of Positive School Psychology, 2023(4), pp. 725 732. Disponible sur http://journalppw.com

Smolarz, Beata ; Zadrożna Nowak, Anna et Romanowicz, Hanna. (2022). Breast Cancer—Epidemiology, Classification, Pathogenesis and Treatment (Review of Literature). Cancers, 14(10). Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers14102569

Sugiyono. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D (MT Dr. Ir. Sutopo. S.Pd, Éd.; 2e éd.). ALFABETA.

Verhoeven, Didier ; Kaufman, Cary ; Mansel, Robert et Siesling, Sabine. (2020). Breast Cancer: Global Quality Care (1re éd.). New York : Oxford University Press.

Wahidin, Mugi ; Febrianti, Rini ; Susanty, Frides et Hasanah, Sri Ridha. (2022). Twelve Years Implementation of Cervical and Breast Cancer Screening Program in Indonesia. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, 23(3), pp. 829 837. Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.31557/APJCP.2022.23.3.829

Wojtyla, Cezary ; Bertuccio, Paola ; Ciebiera, Michal et Vecchia, Carlo La. (2021). Breast cancer mortality in the americas and australasia over the period 1980–2017 with predictions for 2025. Biology, 10(8). Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10080814

World Health Organization. (2025). Breast Cancer. World Health Organization. Disponible sur https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/breast-cancer? [Consulté le 28/11/2025].

Xu, Jie ; Lin, Yong ; Yang, Mu et Zhang, Lanjing. (2020). Statistics and pitfalls of trend analysis in cancer research: A review focused on statistical packages. Journal of Cancer, 11(10), pp. 2957 2961. Disponible sur https://doi.org/10.7150/jca.43521